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Sekilas

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Heboh2 kejadian yang menghangat di tanah air, sebenarnya ini komen di status fesbuk seorang teman, komennya panjang banget (kerajinan kali ^_^), sekedar refleksi hasil riset kemarin, tentang world bank, dan sekilas competing ideas sistem ekonomi, policy dan strategi development, hanya sekilas saja.

IMHO di level global, classical/liberal ekonomi berjaya sejak revolusi industri, hingga limbung pd saat depresi 30-40an, shg saat itu resep Keynesian ekonomi diterima bahkan oleh US yg jg menganut classical, sementara itu para economist classical menyempurnakan kajian&teorinya dan menyebut dirinya neo-classical. sesudah PD-II lahir institusi produk Bretton Woods (World Bank & IMF), WB untuk pinjaman projek jangka panjang mis.infrastruktur, IMF untuk menalangi kesulitan uang jangka pendek/ balance of payment. Era kemerdekaan negara2 bekas kolonial menyebabkan negara baru berambisi untuk mensejahterakan negaranya & mencapai kesejajaran posisi dg bekas masternya, maka strategi industrialisasi dijadikan pilihan (meniru pathway rev.industri for economic growth), dg state/negara lead development, darimana kapital untuk industrialisasi? pinjaman mostly dr WB&IMF, titik berat industrialisasi adalah sektor industri berat, dan state owned company (BUMN yg dibesarkan dg uang pinjaman). Dlm perjalanannya industrialisasi tdk spt yg diharapkan (penyebabnya multi faktor, bs dibahas tersendiri), akibatnya utang menumpuk, semakin dalam bergantung pd WB untk finance projek jangka panjang, dan IMF untuk menalangi shortterm balance of payment, konsekuensinya WB&IMF sangat berkuasa pd negara2 pengutang, imbalance power.

Presiden WB akhir 70an pengganti Robert Mc.Namara adalah ekonom neo-classical, didukung oleh head of Research Dept.WB Anne Krueger yg jg pro pasar, plus pada saat itu akhir 70an, terpilihnya Reagan di US dan Tatcher di UK memperkuat arus neo-classical yg poinnya make the price right, free market. Policy WB menyalahkan campur tangan pemerintah/negara sbg penyebab kegagalan development sampai akhir 70an itu. WB merilis Structural Adjustment Program (SAP) yg sangat beken itu, masih ingat bukan? :) financial liberalization, fiscal, market liberalization, dkk, maka SAP menjadi resep policy untuk negara2 yg bergantung pd WB&IMF. Maka tdk heran arus pro pasar menjadi mainstream dg jurnal2 yg melimpah.

tetapi sepanjang 80an neo-classical based policy jg tdk menuai hasil yg diharapkan, malah disparitas income di negara miskin&developing semakin lebar, Joseph Stiglizt yg menjadi head research dept. WB di era 90an awalnya jg ekonom neo-classical yg kemudian berbalik arah, dan menjadi autokritik WB, salah satu kajian Stitglitz yg menjadi resep policy WB u/ developing country adalah peran negara/pemerintah diperlukan for certain extent, jadi yg diperlukan adalah penguatan institisi (salah satunya anti KKN), sejak itu kita mendengar istilah ‘good governance’.

Dg krisis finansial di akhir 90an, menyebabkan Indonesia kesulitan balance of payment yg amat parah, kemana lagi bergantung klo bukan memanggil IMF, maka lagi2 SAP hrus kita terapkan dg lebih gila lagi. Tetapi pengalaman pahit yg bertubi2 bagi negara developing countries membuat kepercayaan kepada WB&IMF merosot, bahkan bbrp antipati, spt amerika latin yg bener2 mengambil langkah paling beda, skr jg muncul tren untuk meminjam langsung ke bank swasta, misalnya bank2 swasta/sumber pendanaan dr timur tengah, langsung bilateral ke china, dst.

Sekarang, era 2000an isu yg berkembang adalah globalisasi, climate change, sustainable development. masalah mahzab ekonomi tidak seperti dulu yg strict neo-classical minded atau state minded, sptnya skr pada mulai sadar, we can not copy paste the same pathway of other country, competing idea msh berlangsung dg theory2 yg di klaim post modern, tetapi sisa2 kebergantungan kpd institusi bretton woods msh ada, krn utang jd tdk berdaya, pemberi utang pastilah mempunyai kepentingan, disini imbalance power. Tapi, tidak bisakah kita keluar dari lock-in kebergantungan ini? jawabannya ada pada ‘kekuatan’ pemimpin negari ini.

Kesimpulannya: knp Indonesia menganut ekonomi pro pasar, sebab ketidakmampuan untuk keluar dr kebergantungan kpd institusi Bretton Woods, termasuk ekonom2nya adalah perpanjangan tangannya sy duga. Padahal, spt prof.jimly as sidiqi ungkap, undang-undang dasar kita, telah menyatakan dg sangat tegas, ciri ekonomi yg hendak kita bangun, klo dulu yg di pasal 33 UUD’45. wallahu’alam

Written by ibu didin

May 7th, 2010 at 9:02 pm

Relation between Economic Growth and Inflation

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What is the theory and empirical evidence on the relationship between economic growth and inflation.

Economic growth and inflation are both positively correlated. This means that inflation is one of the inherent economic growth’s features. Along. ┬áHamilton (1952) claimed that inflation is an important stimulant for creating growth and Rostow (1960) also argued that inflation is necessary for developing industrial take-offs. The great support of inflationary policy is came from Keynes, compare to deflation Keynes is more tolerable to inflation he described both of inflation and deflation in negative term one is unjust and the other is inexpedient, but to have inflation is preferable because to provoke unemployment is worse than to disappoint the rentier.

Keynes argued that investment can generate its own saving by raising the level of income when the economy is not performed, and inflationary policy can redistribute income from wage earners with low propensity to save to profit earner with high propensity to save when economy perform at full capacity. The second argument of Keynes is, the inflation can encourage investment by raising the nominal rate of return on investment and reduce the real rate of interest.

However, there are some dangers of inflation that need to be considered. Just to mention one of them is that inflation can reduce the purchasing power of money if it is reaching excessive level. And it can put the society in a real resource costs and welfare losses.

Numbers of empirical studies show that inflation has a non-linier relationship with growth. Bruno (1995), at World Bank, who observe annually on 127 countries over the year 1960-1992 shows that inflation and growth are positively related up to 5 per cent inflation and then start to declining to inflation set. And it comes to negative relationship when the inflation rate reaching 30 per cent. The other study by Sarel (1996) at the IMF shows the similar result when he examined 87 countries over the period 1970-1990 and divide the observation into twelve inflation group using inflation of group 6 as reference show that in the inflation take a positive effect on growth for group 7 (averagely 8%) and start toward negative relationship when inflation is very high. The evidence of non-linearity and growth is also found by Stanners (1993) he studied 9 countries over the period of 1948-1986 and 44 countries over 1980-1988 that after divide the 44 countries into four groups the growth is highest for the second group.

The lesson from empirical data is, it is okay to have inflation an moderate level since it is an inherent feature of growth but what is need to be aware is when inflation rate reaches an excessive level which could create hyperinflation.

Written by ibu didin

February 13th, 2010 at 1:04 pm